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What That Was All about Yesterday - Scott Adams' Blog

What That Was All about Yesterday

I’m going to let you inside my head more than usual today. I apologize in advance.

Many of you surmised that my prior post about the genie was really a cleverly disguised analogy to my new book, and that once I trapped you into saying you would take the genie’s deal, the follow-up would be me saying, “Therefore buy my book!”

But that wasn’t my scheme. There’s a longer play.

I was trying to isolate (unscientifically) for how many people among us would turn down a deal that is unambiguously good. The real world is never unambiguously good, so it wouldn’t make sense to generalize the genie analogy to the book.

I have been seeing a pattern in the past several years that makes me wonder if a sizeable portion of the public has become anti-success. The media has pitted the general public against the one-percenters for several years, so that might be a factor. And the bottom-feeders on the Internet (Gawker, Jezebel, etc.) have business models that involve taking celebrity quotes out of context to demonize them. So it would be no surprise if the public disliked successful people more than ever.

But I have also lately observed people who seem to reject their own best paths to success in favor of paths that are clearly bad. Let’s call those choices “loser choices” because any rational and objective observer would see it that way. I wondered if I was seeing an emerging pattern or an illusion.

This line of thinking started because I was seeing the 5-star reviews pour in for my book, How to Fail at Almost Everything. It’s getting the best reviews of anything I’ve written. And the feedback I’m getting by email is just as good. Yet the sales rank is relatively low compared to books in the genre that have worse reviews. So what’s the explanation for the exceptional reviews and relatively low sales rank?

It could be any of these explanations.

  1. People aren’t especially interested in pursuing “big” success.
  2. People don’t believe books can improve the odds of success.
  3. People don’t believe that I could write a useful book in this area.
  4. People think success requires more work than they choose to take on.
  5. People believe books can help success, but other uses of time are more effective for pursuing success than reading a book.
  6. People don’t know the book exists.
  7. Something about the marketing/positioning of the book isn’t working.
  8. People don’t like me personally.
  9. People assume the book is more humor than helpful.

Feel free to add to the list.

My attempt in the prior post to isolate for a “loser preference” was interesting but ambiguous. I’ll stick with my belief that if you offered a group of strangers a million dollars each with no strings attached, 10% would turn it down for reasons that would seem ridiculous to the other 90%. But I don’t think the loser preference is enough to account for the high reviews and relatively low sales rank of my book.

Normally I would just shrug and move to the next project with a better-luck-next-time attitude. But this one is different. And here’s where I’m going to let you inside my head more than normal. That’s always dangerous.

As I’ve said in a few media interviews lately, I already have all the money I need personally for the rest of my life. Every dollar I make from now on will be spent by others. But success of the sort I have enjoyed brings with it an unexpected obligation. By virtue of my job, I have an oversized impact on what ideas the public is exposed to. And that means I have an unusually large ability to create positive change in the world. How do I ignore that and go fishing? It would feel immoral.

Now here comes the part I shouldn’t say: There is a non-zero chance that my book, How to Fail, could be one of the most useful books ever written.

That claim sounds absurd and arrogant to anyone who hasn’t read the book. If you have read it, you probably had the same reaction as the 5-star reviews. And by that I mean you said to yourself some version of “Every 25-year old should read this.”

The value of any book would be some function of how useful the topic is and how many people read it. How to Fail addresses what might be the most useful topic of all time: personal success. If the book works as the 5-star reviews believe it does, and it has the potential to make anyone who reads it more likely to succeed, the ripple effect of that improvement could be civilization-altering. Putting that in simpler terms, what if everyone in the world were 5% more effective in pursuing success? Wouldn’t that be an enormously positive development?

Realistically, I can’t rule out the possibility that I wrote a book that readers believe is helpful but isn’t. Such books clearly exist. But that feels unlikely to me, given the nature of the reviews and the type of content in the book. The folks who have read it understand what I mean.

There’s no easy and objective way of knowing if the book is as useful as readers seem to think. So let’s artificially say the odds of it being useful to a reader are only 20%. And the expense for buying that 20% chance is less than $20 and a few hours of time. Who turns down that deal?

I’m trying to isolate which factor is most important in keeping folks from buying what might be one of the most useful books in the history of civilization. If I figure out where the obstacle is, I’ll lean on it a bit and see what happens.

I am well aware that many of you will read this post as nothing but arrogance and delusion. I totally get that. And keep in mind that I have no objective way to know your impression is wrong. Crazy people don’t always know they are crazy. That’s precisely my dilemma here: My opinion of the value of the book sounds crazy even to me.

But I’ve decided to open myself up for the inevitable barrage of insults that this post invites in the hope that one of you will say something revelatory on one of these two questions

1. If you read the book, am I wrong that it is useful?

2. What do you think is the biggest factor keeping OTHER people from reading it?