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Robot Geniuses are Coming - Scott Adams' Blog

Robot Geniuses are Coming

Sometimes I think intelligence is nothing but pattern recognition. Someday in the near future a computer scientist will write code that rapidly compares and stores complex patterns. To populate the computer model with data, the programmer will let his software read the entire Internet, or as much as it can, and look for patterns. After a few days of chewing through content on the Internet, the software will appear to understand everything about humans, from our language to our history. The reality of this apparent “understanding” would be nothing more than pattern recognition.

Consider a simple example: A computer could learn by pattern recognition that humans raised in specific parts of the world usually say “bless you” to a person within earshot who has just sneezed. Then overlay the pattern that people usually whisper in a library and your artificial intelligence knows it should whisper “bless you” when someone in a library sneezes. In a more complicated scenario there might be hundreds of patterns intersecting, but a computer could easily contrast and compare them.

I could be wrong, but I suspect that artificial intelligence will grow out of one page of clever pattern recognition code combined with exposure to every pattern revealed on the Internet. It would take about a week to turn the pattern recognition code into what appears to us a sentient being with super intelligence. Futurists call that day the singularity.

As with most of my posts, some of you will tell me about all of the fiction books that say the same thing but said it first. I haven’t read any of those books. Nor do I know anything about actual AI research, so perhaps it’s obvious that pattern recognition is the key, and the real problem is that it’s a hard nut to crack.

I came to my hypothesis that intelligence is just pattern recognition because people who are not terribly bright have trouble understanding analogies. And analogies are just patterns.

Logic isn’t a big part of human intelligence. Put three humans in a room with a problem and each will have a different idea of the logical solution. Humans are rationalizers, not logical beings. Computers don’t need logic to act human because humans don’t have enough logic that anyone would notice some was missing.

Experience is little more than having more patterns to draw from. New situations are never identical to old ones, but they might follow a general pattern. For example, when I was in my twenties and someone said they would call me back I assumed it was true. Now I look at the entire situation, and all the patterns involved, and half the time I correctly tell myself I’ll never hear from that person.

My two questions for the day:

  1. Is intelligence much more than pattern recognition?
  2. If intelligence is mostly pattern recognition, how likely is it that someone will write code that scours the Internet for patterns and uses that as a base to create super intelligence?