As I explained in an earlier post, when you see lots of different explanations for the same event, it probably means the public is in mass cognitive dissonance. Trump’s unexpected surge in the polls did just that.
And when an otherwise smart person offers an explanation that is clearly absurd, that is a tell for cognitive dissonance too. You will see a lot of smart people saying a lot of head-scratching things over the next year. More than usual.
I claim exemption from this particular trigger for cognitive dissonance because I predicted a Trump victory (by a large margin) in the general election before anyone else on the planet thought it possible he would even win the nomination.
According to science, each of you who are “surprised” by Trump’s success so far (which makes you feel dumber than your self-image supports) should be in dissonance right now, searching for an explanation that makes sense while still maintaining your self-image of being smart.
I have never seen a hypnotist take someone OUT of dissonance before. So I thought I would be fun to do that for you today. I will target only the most popular (and absurd) explanation for Trump’s rise in the polls and take you out of cognitive dissonance for that one explanation only.
This comic should do it.
The “outsider” explanation for Trump’s run is a classic tell for cognitive dissonance. In order for that explanation to make sense, one must assume that Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina would have taken out Bush as effectively as Trump. Are you feeling that?
Now that all of you are out of cognitive dissonance on the “outsider” explanation, watch the comments for the people who just changed their minds about the outsider thing in the past minute. Should be a freaky experience for them.
You don’t need to remind me that I could be the deluded one here, having committed to one explanation of Trump’s rise over the others. The science says I would be somewhat blinded by that. So take this blog (and everything else I write) with a grain of salt. This is just for entertainment.
Update: I predict that the comic above will substantially reduce the number of pundits using the “outsider” explanation within two weeks. (A lot of press people read this blog.)
Look for stories that say some form of “More than just an outsider appeal.” That signals the change before “outsider” is dropped entirely.
I remind you that my predictions are just for fun. I make them so you can track the Master Wizard Hypothesis and see how well it predicts the future compared to whatever you believed before.
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For more about systems (the way Trump operates) versus goals (the way most people operate), you can find more in my book.