The Megyn Kelly interview that I predicted happened. At about the same time, Trump drew even with Clinton in the polls, perhaps a bit ahead, also as I predicted. So, my prediction of the third act was right, right?
Well, not so fast.
The latest Real Clear Politics Poll has Clinton at 44.1% to Trump’s 38.3%. Trump had a bad week. Other polls show him down as well. Here are a few reasons why.
1. The Judge Curiel affair left a bad taste in voters’ mouths.
2. Clinton’s attack machine went into overdrive, with the help of Master Persuader-in-Chief, President Obama. The lame attacks of the past got far sharper, persuasion-wise.
3. Trump University. Yuck.
4. Clinton clinched (sort of) the democratic nomination, and that’s good for a bump.
So, did Trump’s movie-style third act happen, or not? Was my prediction wrong after all? What’s up with the drop in Trump’s poll numbers?
Let me explain how the third act works in movies, because movies are the model I used for my prediction.* In movies, the third act is when the hero faces his biggest challenge and overcomes it. But that’s not the end of the movie. There is always the yet-bigger danger that reveals itself toward the end.
For example, imagine a movie in which the hero saves the world in the third act but in the process is exposed to a poison that will kill him. That’s a typical movie pattern. There has to be ONE MORE UNSOLVABLE problem before the movie ends.
And we’re seeing that unsolvable problem right now. Trump’s recent dip in the polls, along with his sky-high unfavorable ratings seems to make him unelectable. Even Republicans have a problem with Trump.
This isn’t the Republican nomination, where Trump could dominate. The general election is a new game. There’s no way for Trump to solve a problem this big, right?
That’s what you are supposed to think at this point in the movie.
Wait for the plot twist this summer. You’re gonna love it.
*There’s a reason I think real life will follow a movie pattern in this situation. I’ll share that with you once the pattern proves out. I realize the movie pattern prediction defies common sense. Hold your sense of wonder for now.