< Go Back

Master Persuader Scorecard – Iran Update

Master Persuader Scorecard – Iran Update

    On September 21st, 2015, I blogged about the Iranian nuclear negotiations. I showed my evidence and my argument that Iranian President Rouhani is – like President Obama – a Master Persuader. And I predicted that Rouhani could persuade the real boss in Iran, Khamenei, to accept the deal. 

    Many of you thought Rouhani would have no chance of persuading Khamenei. But Khamenei accepted the deal.

    You can argue that the Iranian deal is a bad one for the U.S., and therefore, logically, that’s the reason Khamenei accepted it. But I remind you that only prediction reveals a useful filter on reality. One can always find ways to fit any theory to the past. 

    To be clear, I fully accept the possibility that the reason Iran signed the deal is because they think they screwed us. All I’m asking you to do is keep a meta-eye on my predictions and see if ANY of them are wrong.

    They can’t all be coincidences, can they?

    In other news, Nate Silver is starting to question himself about Trump’s chances.

More Episodes