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My Prediction about My Predictions (Trump Persuasion Series)

My Prediction about My Predictions (Trump Persuasion Series)

    Over at 2016 Presidential Campaign Predictions they are tracking pundit predictions for the presidential race, including mine. But they have my Trump prediction dated in November. The first time I predicted he would win it all was August. I revised the prediction to “landslide” in October.

    In the unlikely event that my August prediction turns out to be right (that Trump wins it all), the world is not ready to believe I could see it so early. Assuming I did. 

    My new prediction is that my prediction in August will be largely ignored because a prediction in November better fits the standard 2D model of reality. Anyone could make the Trump-wins prediction in November, after he had been dominating polls for months. August was the one with no 2D explanation. Cognitive dissonance should lead people to ignore my August prediction as if it did not happen.

    If you think a Trump landslide will be good for my reputation, that is 2D thinking. The world will decide I made my prediction in November, because that fits what we understand about the world. And that will not be interesting in the least.

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