Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated
Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated
August 28, 2015
On August 6th, Nate Silver predicted in his highly-respected FiveThiryEight blog that Donald Trump had only a 2% chance of getting the Republican nomination. Silver’s prediction is based on historical patterns, solid data, and sound reasoning. He’s great at what he does. Maybe the best.
A week later, on August 13th, I wrote my post about Trump’s “clown genius” and predicted – based on his tool set – that Trump would win the Republican nomination and the general election as well.
On August 24th, based on Trump’s continued use of masterful persuasion techniques, I doubled-down and modified my prediction to say he would win the general election by a large margin. I believe I am alone in that prediction, at least among the talking-head/pundit/writer set. I realize that a healthy chunk of voters think he can go all the way. But the smart professionals almost universally expect him to flame out.
If I had to put a number on my prediction, I would say a 98% chance of Trump winning the whole thing. That is the direct opposite of Silver’s prediction.
Nate Silver is far smarter than I am on this sort of topic. He’s considered the gold standard for predicting stuff that people don’t think is predictable. If you had to choose sides on the Trump predictions, the smart money is on Silver.
That said, Silver’s predictions are necessarily based on past patterns. My predictions are based on my unique view into Trump’s toolbox of persuasion. I believe those tools are invisible to almost everyone but trained hypnotists and people that study the science of persuasion.
What I see from my perspective as a trained hypnotist is that Trump brought a flame thrower to a stick fight.
Since the beginning of time, every winner of every stick fight was a guy with a stick. So you’d expect that trend to continue. Until someone shows up to the fight with a flame thrower.
I’m betting on the guy with the flame thrower. Silver is betting Trump will set himself on fire with that flame thrower, or some candidate with a stick will get lucky before now and election day. That’s what always happened before.
But I say this isn’t Trump’s first fight using a flame thrower. I wouldn’t count on him forgetting where the trigger is.
Today’s post is intended to document my prediction. I do this because I know most of you are not yet convinced of the power of persuasion. You know persuasion is a real thing, but you have never seen a Master Wizard practice in public, in real time, without trying to cover his tracks. That’s new. Even Steve Jobs did most of his work behind closed doors.
This might be a game-changer not just for politics but for humanity’s sense of identity. When you see humans get reprogrammed in real time, it is hard to maintain a belief in free will.
I don’t hang out with other trained hypnotists. But I’ll bet not many of them believe in free will. We see stuff you have never seen. And would not believe.
If Trump wins, the professional watchers of politics will explain to you why voters selected him. Some writers will say voters chose Trump for his brutal honesty, his immigration stand, his business talent, an anger with the status quo, or because the competition was weak. Others will point to his outsider status.
Those reasons will be “real” in the sense that the voters expressing them in polls are not lying. But no one will spend much time trying to figure out why people have those feelings.
Hint: Not free will.
Update: Sept 4, 2015. Polls show Trump’s favorability ratings inexplicably spiking. Experts are baffled.
In other news, for several years I have been tracking a Master Wizard that I believe lives in Southern California. It seems he has trained a small army of attractive women in his method. The women create a specialized style of porn video clips that literally hypnotize the viewer to magnify the orgasm experience beyond anything you probably imagine is possible. Hypnosis has a super-strong impact on about 20% of people. And a lesser-but-strong impact on most of the rest.
Once a customer is hooked, the girls use powerful (and real) hypnosis tools to connect the viewer’s enjoyable experience (a super-orgasm, or several) to the viewer’s act of giving them money, either directly or by buying more clips. Eventually the regular viewers are reprogrammed to get their sexual thrill by the act of donating money to the girls in the videos. There are lots of variations tied to each type of sexual kink, but that’s the general idea.
My best guess is that 10% of the traffic that flows through their business model literally cannot leave until they have no money left. The Master Wizard is that good. The women are well-coached in his methods.
The fascinating thing is that the videos fully-disclose what they are doing, in clear language that is often repeated. The women explain the hypnosis methods they are using much the way I have been dissecting Trump’s technique. Nothing is hidden, at least with this one set of practitioners.
That makes customers feel safe that the hypnosis is just for fun and not actually rewiring them. But it doesn’t work that way. Explaining the technique as you do it actually deepens the effect. Hypnotists learn to do that.
The Master Hypnotist behind all of this found a great loophole in the law. If humans understood how effective these videos are, they would be illegal in the same way gambling is illegal in most places. And the Master Wizard hides in plain site because the Internet is so littered with fake porn hypnosis (women waving watches and saying YOU ARE SLEEPY) that no one expects a real one to sneak into the mix. And this Master Wizard is a polymath of some sort. He also knows how to do high quality video production, data analytics, and A-B testing.
When you combine hypnosis, sex, and A-B testing on a large population, the results are unimaginably powerful. The customers in this situation are getting an insanely good product. The only issue is the price.
If a court ever tries to make this business illegal, the star witness will be the Master Wizard himself.
No jury will ever convict him.
Now THAT’S a business model.
Why is everyone so surprised that my book on systems versus goals is better than they expected? The two newest reviews are typical.