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New Hampshire Prediction (Master Persuader Series)

New Hampshire Prediction (Master Persuader Series)

    In my experience on this planet, anything that is both important and corruptible (without detection) is already corrupted. Athletes are using performance-enhancing drugs, politicians are using dirty tricks, hedge funds are using insider information, and so on. It’s a universal truth. I doubt you could find anything in our world that is both important and corruptible yet isn’t already corrupted.

    That brings us to the Iowa caucuses. I have no evidence that the the vote was fraudulent. But objectively speaking, if the GOP establishment had rigged the Iowa result for a Rubio surge, it would looks to observers exactly the way it played out. To be fair, the world is full of natural coincidences, and it is easy to fit any conspiracy theory to any outcome.

    But just for fun, I’m going to predict that the New Hampshire vote follows form with Iowa and shows a last-minute Rubio “surge” that polls will not see coming. Pundits will say undecided voters ended up going with the “safe” choice of Rubio. Or pundits will say people are turning to Rubio because of his Iowa surge.

    The 3D analysis says the GOP establishment would have to use Iowa and New Hampshire to stop Trump. It’s their last chance. I assume a small group of establishment insiders run the polling processes in both places. 

    Motive: Stop Trump and retain power for their billionaire overlords. All the insiders keep their gravy trains.

    Opportunity: Republican insiders presumably control the polling process. They have opportunity.

    Stakes: Highest of the high

    When you have those three conditions, the odds of fraud are about 100%. So this prediction doesn’t follow the Master Persuader filter so much as common sense. Wherever there is motive, opportunity, and high stakes, fraud happens.

    So look for Rubio to have an inexplicably strong surge in New Hampshire that sets him up to take second-place from Cruz in the contests that follow.

    If something like that happens, we can’t rule out coincidence. And keep in mind that Nate Silver and others have long predicted that a “normal” candidate will rise. So you will have solid competing explanations for any Rubio surge in New Hampshire.

    Let’s see what happens. 

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