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The Era of Women

    If the latest groping/kissing allegations against Trump hold up – and I assume they will, based on quantity if not credibility – it won’t matter what Wikileaks says about Clinton. She will win easily.

    If Clinton wins, you’ll wonder if this invalidates the Master Persuader Hypothesis. The short answer is no, because the concept doesn’t account for unknowns of this magnitude. If a meteor had struck Trump a day before election day, it wouldn’t say much about his skill as a persuader. The Master Persuasion Hypothesis worked splendidly until the double-whammy of the Access Hollywood tape and the “octopus” meteor. 

    Trump could still win, but only if some new and unexpected meteor strikes Clinton. Here’s how I see it through the persuasion filter:

    1. Facts and policies stopped mattering months ago. No one cares.

    2. Wikileaks has no meteors to offer. The Wikileaks misdeeds involve people who are not Clinton, and they involve issues that are boring and a bit complicated. The public will not be much influenced by them.

    3. The “octopus” line about Trump is engineered persuasion of the highest order. It makes the story deeply visual and extra-creepy. Godzilla, or someone similarly skilled, is probably behind that word. It’s too engineered for a civilian to concoct during an interview. That’s professional work. And it’s probably a golden stake through Trump’s political heart. (Well played.)

    This is a good time to remind you that I endorse Gary Johnson because he only touches himself. 

    Anyway, getting to the point of this post, if Clinton wins, it will be because women voted for her in landslide proportions while men (on average) preferred Trump. And that means two things of historic importance.

    1. We will elect the first woman to be President of the United States. That’s good for everyone.

    and…

    2. Everything that goes wrong with the country from this point forward is women’s fault.

    I feel some relief about that. The next four years are likely to be some of the worst in our country’s history. The Republican establishment will make sure of that because a failed America is in their best interest in the short run. Four years from now they want to offer their chosen savior (Paul Ryan). Trump would have a good chance of bullying the Republican establishment as he has done so far. Clinton, not so much. She’ll be buried in scandals, both real and imagined.

    Men had a good run. We invented almost everything, and that’s cool. But we also started all of the wars and committed most of the crimes. It’s a mixed record to be sure. Now it’s time for something different, apparently.

    Hillary Clinton is all yours, ladies. She and her alleged rapist husband are your brand now. Wear them well.

    You might like my book because whatever.

Scandal Poker – Trump Vs. Clinton

    This is the most scandalicious election of all time. I’m losing track of all the allegations and rumors. As a public service, I will use the persuasion filter plus some pattern recognition to give you my subjective impression of the odds of each rumor being true. I will do this in the form of poker hands.

    Let’s play Scandal Poker!

    Hand 1:

    Clinton had several political opponents killed 

    Trump is a puppet of the Russian government

    Result: Tie. Neither is believable. 

    Hand 2:

    Trump made inappropriate sexual advances with women.

    Clinton threatened her husband’s rape victims.

    Result: Tie. Both damaged women. 

    Hand 3:

    Trump stiffed subcontractors and suppliers on one or more major projects.

    Clinton had the Travelgate scandal

    Result: Tie. Both did the deeds, but all within the law, as far as we know.

    Hand 4:

    Trump raped a 13-year old girl

    Hillary Clinton is knowingly married to a serial pedophile

    Result: Tie. Neither is credible.

    Hand 5:

    Trump university was a scam

    Clinton made huge gains on fraudulent commodity trades thanks to a political ally.

    Result: Tie. Both probably true.

    Hand 6:

    Trump games the IRS code to avoid taxes

    Clinton’s foundation is a pay-to-play scheme

    Result: Tie. Both apparently true, and both probably legal (enough).

    Hand 7:

    Clinton is hiding a major health problem.

    Trump is secretly a racist/Hitler

    Result: Trump wins this hand. Nearly everyone was a blatant racist 30 years ago, judged by today’s more enlightened standards. Many people improved since then. I see no signs of real racism from Trump in the past decade or two, and several examples of the opposite. What you see if you are not trained in persuasion is loads of confirmation bias that looks (to you) like evidence of racism. That’s because the Clinton persuasion game has succeeded in framing Trump’s nationalist policies and politically incorrect phrasing as racist “dog whistles.”

    Clinton, on the other hand, is almost certainly covering for some sort of major health problem. We see that in her schedule, her demeanor at some events, her two excuses for her 9-11 collapse, and the more-than-one explanation of her persistent cough. Two explanations for one event is a tell for lying.

    Hand 8:

    Clinton has a drinking problem

    Trump has a temperament/ego/narcissism problem

    Result: Tie. Both probably true. But if so, both of them got this far, so apparently they can control themselves enough to succeed.

    Hand 9:

    Clinton and Huma are secretly a couple (implying Clinton is not proud of her sexual orientation)

    Trump is a homophobe

    Result: Tie. I am aware of no evidence to support either allegation.

    Hand 10:

    Trump is a sexist

    Clinton is anti-male

    Result: Tie. Both claims are likely to be A LITTLE true, because they are human. But we don’t see it reflected in their public lives or policies.

    Hand 11:

    Trump has a cocaine habit that causes his sniffling.

    The Clinton family keeps 95% of the money donated to The Clinton Foundation

    Result: Tie. Neither allegation is likely to be true. Trump is anti-drug to the core. The Clinton Foundation has high marks from independent charity graders.

    — 

    Hand 12:

    Clinton allowed Benghazi to happen through incompetence or incapacitation.

    Trump’s several bankruptcies prove he is bad at business.

    Result: Tie. Neither is likely to be true. The most-likely explanation for Benghazi is that the government is keeping something from the public, but not necessarily for evil reasons. The Trump bankruptcies represent the kind of pivot/comeback we associate with the best business-people in a high-risk entrepreneurial environment.

    I’m sure I’m forgetting a few dozen allegations and scandals, so I’ll update this if I think of anything else that is important.

    Note: I now endorse Gary Johnson. He’s allegedly a stoner who doesn’t know much about Aleppo. I call that relatable. A vote for Clinton or Trump is support for an alleged abuser of women. I don’t need that on my brand.

    Hear my full 7-minute interview with the BBC radio, about Trump.

    You might love my book because it has no scandals. It is also the #1 best seller in its category today.